The Rise in the Price of Oil-Becker - The Becker-Posner Blog

As we will see in the detail below, influence over the priceof oil is not equivalent to control.
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The Rise in the Price of Oil-Becker

What a bunch of nonsense. Google "Art Berman" and look at his comparative inventory chart -- it's a fit between oil price and storage volumes. One glance at this will show you we'll be at $80 very soon (comparative inventories dropped ~200 MM bbls last year; if we even do half that much this year, $80 is a shoe-in). Here's a link, not sure if it will work.

If oil prices revert to the mean this period is a little moreappropriate for today's analyst. It follows the peak in U.S.
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Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis



From 1974 to 1978, the world crude oil price was relatively flatranging from $12.52 per barrel to $14.57 per barrel. Whenadjusted for inflation world oil prices were in a period of moderatedecline.

In the short-term, the recessioninduced by the 1973-1974 crude oil price spike was somewhat less severebecause U.S.
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While the NYMEX strip price puts oil at somewhere near $65 abarrel in 2020, the Barclays base case sees oil at $85 a barrel,with a less optimistic scenario landing on $75 a barrel in 2020 anda more optimistic, high case result of $100 a barrel.

oil glut is the rapid rise of America's domestic oil industry to global dominance
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Brian Simpson. - Alba Oil & Gas Community

A rise from the $50 average of 2017 to $80 or more in 2018 is very highly unlikely. On the contrary, the rapid rise in American shale oil production creates the risk of a price drop below $50.

Who benefits from lower oil prices?

Of course, being cautious (pessimistic?), I note that even inthe Barclays base case, oil sits at $63 and $65 a barrel for 2016and 2017, respectively. That realization sufficiently stuntsmy optimism in the first paragraph. When it comes to oilprices and activity, I'm not prepared for the delayedgratification of better prices in 2020.

Are Low Oil Prices Here to Stay? | HuffPost

It was down 6.5 million barrels perday from a year before. As a consequence, worldwide crude oilproduction was 10 percent lower than in 1979.

The loss of production from the combined effects of the Iranianrevolution and the Iraq-Iran War caused crude oil prices to more thandouble. The nominal price went from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrelin 1981.

Over three decades later Iran's production is only two-thirds of thelevel reached under the government of Reza Pahlavi, the former Shah ofIran.

Iraq's production is now increasing, but remains a million barrelsbelow its peak before the Iraq-Iran War.

World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?

In August 1985, the Saudis tired of this role. Theylinked their oil price to the spot market for crude and by early 1986increased production from two million barrels per day to fivemillion. Crude oil prices plummeted falling below $10 per barrelby mid-1986.

WEO 2017 - International Energy Agency

Demand: Continued world growth in oil demand is expected for 2018. For example, the EIA predicts world demand will rise a healthy 1.62 million barrels per day (mmbd), of which 1.2 mmbd is non-OECD (developing markets) consumption.